The sudden jump in petrol prices from about N865 per litre to almost N1,000 has left many Nigerians confused, especially as the two main factors that determine the price, crude oil and the exchange rate, have both been stable lately.
Our correspondent observed that the naira, which exchanged for around N1,700 to a dollar in the first quarter of this year, now trades around N1,477. Likewise, crude oil, which once sold above $80 dollars per barrel earlier in the year, is now around $60.
According to data from energy intelligence firm Kpler, crude oil prices fell sharply last week, with Brent dropping below $60 per barrel for the first time since May after US President Donald Trump threatened higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Although the president later backtracked, the brief episode rattled the market, exposing its fragility to economic shocks.
The timing of that fall coincided with a sudden increase in petrol prices by depot owners and the Dangote refinery, deepening confusion among consumers who are already struggling with high costs of living.
Kpler data showed a looming global supply glut that could keep crude prices weak for months. It estimated a surplus of about three million barrels per day through the first quarter of 2026, driven by stronger output from non-OPEC countries and the gradual easing of OPEC+ production cuts.
But when Nigerians were expecting a reduction in petrol prices, the figures surged on Monday. No one has been able to explain the real cause of the price increase because crude and foreign exchange rates do not currently agree with the new petrol pricing regime.
However, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) has blamed depot owners for the hike, which has climbed to between N930 and N950 per litre in most parts of the country.
The IPMAN President, Abubakar Shettima, told reporters that depot operators raised their prices after noticing that the Dangote refinery had stopped loading petrol for some days.
“These DAPPMAN people are the only ones selling the product now. But probably Dangote will start soon. If Dangote starts selling, the price will come down. Dangote has not been selling to marketers for days,” Shettima said.
Research showed that depot owners increased their ex-depot prices from an average of N830 to about N890 per litre on Monday. Depots such as Matrix, Fynefield and Liquid Bulk sold petrol at N900, Northwest at N895, Pinnacle at N885, RainOil at N890, NIPCO at N850, Aiteo at N878, and Sigmund at N890.
Following the increase, filling stations across Lagos, Ogun and Abuja raised their pump prices to match the new regime.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited retail outlets sold petrol at N928 per litre, up by about N50 from previous rates.
The NNPC spokesperson, Andy Odeh, told reporters that the adjustment was a direct result of higher depot prices.
“The ex-depot prices have gone up. You know all the filling stations are retailers. So, when the price goes up ex-depot, there will be an adjustment by the retailers. That’s what has happened, and it’s across all the retailers,” he said.
In Lagos and Ogun, many stations still sold petrol between N900 and N950 on Thursday.
According to information gathered, Dangote refinery stopped loading petrol to marketers recently, creating a tight supply situation. Industry sources argued that the tightness might be linked to maintenance work and the recent lay-off of engineers at the plant.
Shettima said he believed the supply issue is temporary and that prices will normalise once Dangote resumes full operations.
We’re loading — Dangote
Dangote Intensifies Petrol Loading Amid Ongoing Price Surge
Meanwhile, the Dangote refinery told our correspondent that fuel loading has been intensified to ensure the supply of more petrol across the country.
Officials of the refinery, who did not want to be mentioned because they were not allowed to speak with the press, said petrol loading to marketers had resumed as of Wednesday, though this has yet to lower prices.
Dangote partners, MRS and Heyden, sold petrol at N925 and N923 per litre, respectively.
It was learnt that the refinery had also raised its petrol gantry price from N820 to about N870.
“We are loading petrol, and we have reduced the price of diesel from N960 to N910. Tankers are loading as we speak.
“Some people are just exploiting the situation. But I am sure as soon as more products are distributed, things will become normal. I am sure the recent price hike will come down because we are intensifying distribution across the country,” the officials explained.
A source linked the fuel hike to the disruptions caused by the PENGASSAN strike after the sacking of refinery engineers.
Nonetheless, she stated, “The disruption should be over soon. That is how delicate the sector is. Any little disruption can cause many shocks.”
While falling crude prices and a stronger naira should push petrol prices down, the current reality in Nigeria’s downstream sector is different.
Analysts said market volatility, limited domestic refining, and speculative depot pricing continue to shape pump prices more than global benchmarks. Recall that the three NNPC refineries are still not working at the moment.
Olatide Jeremiah of Petroleumprice.com opined that unless Dangote resumes full loading, the current high prices may persist.
For now, motorists and households are left to grapple with the paradox of rising fuel costs in a season of cheaper crude and a relatively stronger currency, a situation experts said underscored the fragility of Nigeria’s downstream market. …Punchng.com
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