Crude Surge Pushes Petrol Price Towards N1,000/Litre – Marketers

Fuel marketers have warned that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) may climb to N1,000 per litre in the coming days following the sharp rise in global crude oil prices above $70 per barrel. The development comes barely days after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased its petrol price from N739 to N839, a move that has already pushed retail prices higher across many filling stations.

International oil benchmarks surged on Thursday, with Brent crude settling at $70.71 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate at $65.42. By Friday afternoon, further increases were recorded as Brent rose to $70.89 while WTI reached $65.80, according to oilprice.com. Analysts attributed the rally to growing fears that escalating tensions between the United States and Iran could disrupt global supply, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20 million barrels per day pass—is threatened.

Reuters reported that both Brent and WTI entered technically overbought territory, hitting their highest levels since July and September respectively. The geopolitical tension deepened as US President Donald Trump weighed options against Iran, including targeted strikes, while reports emerged of mass arrests inside Iran aimed at curbing protests. PVM analyst John Evans noted, “The immediate (market) concern is the collateral damage done if Iran takes a swing at its neighbours or, possibly even more tellingly, it closes the Strait of Hormuz to the 20 million barrels per day of oil that navigates it.”

Speaking on the likely impact on Nigeria, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, said crude oil prices and exchange rates remain the major determinants of domestic fuel costs. He cautioned that unless global prices retreat, local pump prices would inevitably rise.

Ukadike stated, “As an independent marketer, we don’t normally want the price of petroleum products to go up; any increase you see now will be because of this international manoeuvre and everything happening in the international community in terms of crude oil price. The crude surge will definitely affect our local market. The price of petroleum products will come down if the crude price goes down, that’s the common principle of the market.”
He added that petrol may reach N1,000 per litre, particularly in areas far from depots, describing it as “the speculation.”

He further explained the pressure marketers are facing, saying, “Crude oil is important in refining petroleum products; once it goes up, the prices of petroleum products will also go up. We are gearing towards that. The only problem is that it is also giving us pressure in terms of our purchasing power because too much naira is now pursuing a few litres of petroleum products.”

According to him, the recent price hike has slowed sales compared with the December festive season. “The market is becoming slow now, unlike in the festive season when the prices were low. People were filling their tanks then, but now, people are becoming conservative because of the price increase,” the IPMAN spokesman noted.

Petrol Prices and Supply Outlook Amid Rising Costs

Another major marketer and importer of PMS confirmed that the landing cost could soon exceed N900 per litre if the upward trend persists. The dealer said, “There is already pressure on funds to import the product (petrol) now, based on the pricing info we are getting from our suppliers. The simple reason is the surge in crude oil prices, caused by the tension in the Middle East.”
He added, “So N1,000/litre (for petrol) is not far from the range. It was sold around that price before, when the price of crude hovered around $75/barrel, and the exchange rate was a bit higher than what we have now. That is purely the market dynamics.”

Across Lagos, retail prices now range between N830 and N859 per litre. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited dispensed petrol at N849 on Friday, while MRS outlets sold at N839, with only a few stations offering slightly lower rates.

Amid the uncertainty, the Dangote refinery reaffirmed its capacity to meet national demand, announcing it can supply 75 million litres of petrol daily against estimated consumption of 50 million litres. It also declared the ability to provide 25 million litres of diesel compared with demand of 14 million litres, and 20 million litres of aviation fuel against a requirement of four million litres.

In a public notice, the company stated, “The management of Dangote Petroleum Refinery would like to reiterate our capability to supply the underlisted petroleum products of the highest international quality standard to marketers and stakeholders: 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit, 25 million litres of Automotive Gas Oil, and 20 million litres of aviation fuel daily.”

The refinery argued that supplying volumes above domestic demand would strengthen market stability and reduce the need for imports. It added that the approach supports Nigeria’s transition from fuel import dependence to domestic refining and aligns with regulatory efforts to ensure orderly downstream operations.

The company maintained that local refining would reduce foreign exchange exposure and improve supply security. “With domestic refining capacity expanding, stakeholders believe Nigeria is increasingly positioned to reduce foreign exchange exposure, improve supply security, and strengthen downstream efficiency through locally refined petroleum products,” the statement concluded.

Earlier on Monday, Dangote had raised its gantry price from N699 to N799 per litre, making it about N70 higher than the landing cost of imported petrol. Marketers who had completed payments at the old rate were reportedly asked to make top-up payments before loading after the refinery withdrew its temporary festive price support and invalidated earlier authorisations.